Location: Columbus, Ohio, United States

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

That's Great it Starts with an Earthquake...

Kofi Annan today referred to the killing of 4 UN Monitors as "an apparently deliberate attack."
I'm not inclined to agree with that, not because I think Israel looks great in a white hat, but because from a realpolitik perspective I don't see any reason that Israel would benefit from capping some UN Inspectors.
What scares the crap out of me isn't so much the new war, or even the fact that the US has been powerless to do anything, it's that Hizballah is not truly an autonomous organization that woke up one morning and got pissed. They are a political tool of Iran. When Iran's goal was to advocate what it saw as the Islamic agenda this was bad. Now that Iran's goal is apparently to establish regional hegemony and then leverage it to make clash of civilizations more than a metaphor Hizbollah's actions are awful scary.
What does Iran seek to gain from their incursion?
The first and most obvious is that they get to look like heroes to the disaffected Arab youth.
Perhaps they're picking a fight by proxy like we did with Russia in the Cold War, and perhaps Israel will go after the puppeteer and go head to head with Iran. That's scary but I don't think it's too likely because that would go nuke and that's unnattractive.
I don't think this is all that they have in mind, and what I anticipate is a bit scarier.
I think that in a couple of weeks we'll hear about the Ahmadijenad Plan, a way to bring a cease fire, They don't recognize Israel, so they won't, but they'll say some crap about halting the Zionist aggression and giving Hizbollah a "non-humiliating" resolution. I wouldn't be surprised if they hit the UN Folks to hamstring the UN and create a need for a peace maker. This sucks. Either Israel agrees and Iran gets a quasi diplomatic win bolstering themselves as the regional hegemon OR Israel refuses and people throw more rocks on the Arab street and recognize Iran as a defacto leader. In either case, with the weakness of Arab states to pull together legitimate governments, the end of the day probably ends up with Iran as the regaional hegemon.
I will write more on this later.


Blogger Keith W said...

I'm losing all support I had for israel with this crap they are pulling... not saying lebanon is in the right,... but israels first card is always military violance and civilians are paying a huge price.... this political state called israel has nothing in common with the biblical people other than a name..... Keith

5:36 AM  

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